Newcastle will win the Premier League, and it’s only a matter of when, not if.
Earlier this month, Newcastle became the wealthiest club in world football by many times over – Mike Ashley finally sold the club after 14 long years, and now the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) owns 80 percent of Newcastle, and Mohammed bin Salman is the face of that majority piece of the pie.
Plenty of ethical questions have arose since the sale, both regarding human rights and fair competition on the field. But those concerns will clearly not change anything at all, and whether it feels wrong for Newcastle to become Manchester City and Chelsea on more steroids than an 80s baseball player means nothing – it happened, and it’ll be happening for many years to come. The shape of world football, and English football in particular, will never be the same.
So, when will Newcastle win its first Premier League title? The Magpies haven’t won a First Division championship since 1927, and they’ve finished better than 10th in the Premier League just once since 2007, but it’s coming. At some point, it will happen.
Through eight games of the 2021-22 Premier League season, Newcastle is winless and sitting in 19th with three points. Steve Bruce was recently sacked, so a managerial change is coming, but the new owners have to wait until the winter window to switch up the squad. So, it won’t be a snap of the fingers – Newcastle has a bit of time to wait before it becomes a Premier League contender. But it’s coming.
This is a prediction on what the next several years at Newcastle will look like.
When Will Newcastle Win the Premier League?
Newcastle finds itself in a relegation battle in the early stages of the season, but a new manager coming in will help improve that situation. But until the new owners are able to open their wallets in January, the team continues to struggle to pick up points. The Magpies will still be near the bottom of the table when the January window opens.
Newcastle will spend gargantuan sums of money to revamp the squad, spending between £20-60 million on three to six players to slowly transform the starting XI. The squad from the second half of the season will be quite different from the first half.
The team’s form will improve steadily, but the slow start will keep the Magpies from being consequential in the race for Europe. Newcastle will have trouble starting 2022 with more than 12 points, but it’ll at least triple its output by the end of the season. The club will finish in a mid-table position with excitement around what the future will hold.
A wild spending spree in the summer will give Newcastle a totally different squad from the one that started the 2021-22 campaign. So long Joelinton, hello Coutinho! Expectations will be high with aims of qualifying for Europe, and understandably so, but too high for what a team less than a year into its transformation can realistically expect.
It will be Newcastle’s best season since finishing fifth in 2011-12, though the team won’t reach that high in the table just yet. With only two windows behind the Magpies, there will still be plenty of deadweight in the club, and while the money will convince some players who otherwise wouldn’t go to a team not competing in Europe to come to Newcastle, Mbappe and Haaland-level players won’t head to Tyneside just yet – they’ll need more of a guarantee of Champions League football first. But plenty of quality players will, very willing to join a project that appears unstoppable.
Still, Newcastle won’t have a squad capable of finishing in the top four just yet, even with another winter window to load up on talent. Instead, it’ll join the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Leicester City, and Everton in the battle for Europa and finish in sixth or seventh, which will probably be enough to at least get into the Conference League for 2023-24.
By the start of the 2023-24 season, Newcastle’s owners will have had four transfer windows to gobble up international talent for insane money, quickly galloping closer and closer to the Manchester Citys and Chelseas of the world. Its squad will be top-four caliber, and if Jurgen Klopp is no longer at Liverpool and/or the Reds haven’t opened up their pocket books in the years between now and then to strengthen and deepen their squad, they’ll be primed to have their Champions League spot stolen.
Newcastle’s ascension will continue, and it’ll become clear quickly that the Magpies have arrived, though adding in European football will make things in the league slightly more complicated. Games against Manchester United, Manchester City, and Liverpool will take on a new level of vitriol and severity, and Newcastle will reach heights it hasn’t seen since the days of Alan Shearer. The Magpies will finish in a top-four position, clinching Champions League football and opening themselves up to another level of player in the following summer window.
Expectations will be through the roof. The pressure will be on in a way it hasn’t been before. In the preseason, people will say that this is the year Newcastle wins the Premier League. But that won’t be so.
Newcastle will again finish in the top four and contend for the league until late in the season but ultimately come up just short, finishing second or third. The main reason will be the manager, who will still be the same person the club hired to replace Steve Bruce, and competing in the Champions League for the first time will add extra strain for the league campaign. The failure to secure the Premier League crown in this season will cost that manager their job, an inevitability when they were signed to start with, and someone with a more proven track record of trophies and championships will be brought in.
In the Champions League, Newcastle will get out of its group and advance to the quarterfinals, but that’s where the run will end. That will also play a role in the manager’s dismissal.
That will make all the difference.
By the time this season starts, Newcastle will be eight transfer windows deep into its new ownership, and that’s more than enough time for the days of Sean Longstaff operating in the midfield to be a distant memory. Tyneside will have become one of the most premier and exciting places to play club football in the world, and the level of talent the new manager will have will rival that of anyone else contending to be the best team on the globe.
In 2026, Newcastle will hoists its first Premier League trophy and end a 99-year title drought. It won’t win the Champions League as well, but it’ll reach the semifinals and be involved in the competition until its late stages. The 2025-26 season will be the best in the club’s history, and it’ll be the true statement to the world that Newcastle is not just the new kid on the block but now the neighborhood bully.
In the five years after the 2025-26 season, Newcastle will win at least one Champions League and secure the Premier League title another three times. The Magpies will be held in similar esteem to the other modern English football giants and rise to the level of continental titan, and with the level of resources coming from the PIF, they won’t come down to earth.
How will this affect the outlook of the Premier League? Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Arsenal – the biggest clubs in the country that aren’t bankrolled by a country or Russian oligarch – it’s time to be very concerned. Your spot near the top of the pile is not guaranteed (as Arsenal fans have already learned the very hard way), and you will be outspent by the likes of Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester City. For Liverpool in particular, the time to squeeze out trophies and titles is now before Newcastle becomes the giant it inevitably will. You thought it was hard having to deal with the insane sums Chelsea and City put out every window? It’s about to go to another level when Newcastle casually breaks record transfer fees in back-to-back-to-back windows.